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NFL Week 4: Weekly Parlays

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September 29, 2012 by shivusharma

3-Team Parlay of the Week (point spread in parentheses)

1) New England Patriots (-4.5) OVER @Buffalo Bills – I can’t go against Brady coming off of two straight losses. The Bills’ pass defense is average at best, so Brady should carve them up with surgical precision. The Patriots’ excellent rush defense should slow down the Bills’ running backs, forcing Fitzpatrick to throw in what projects to be a shootout-type game. And in shootouts, the man with the bigger guns usually wins. I like Brady, Lloyd, Gronk, and Welker much more than Fitzpatrick, Johnson, Scott Chandler, a fresh-off-surgery Fred Jackson, and an injured CJ Spiller (if he plays).

2) San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) OVER @New York Jets – The 49ers were 7-point favorites against the Vikings last week, but fell victim to a transcendent performance by Christian Ponder. While the 49ers have been stout against the run, their pass defense has been shaky (ranked 22nd by Football Outsiders). Good thing for them that Jets have a shitty QB and no receivers to throw to. The Jets’ themselves are so undermanned, that last week they had Tim Tebow trying to catch passes. This week, backup RB, Joe McKnight might be playing corner…yuck. The 49ers will establish the run against the Jets’ 19th ranked run defense, and hit their Revis-less secondary a couple teams with the play-action pass.

3) Seattle Seahawks (-3) OVER @St. Louis Rams – After the Monday Night Football debacle, there is certainly some bad mojo going into this game for the Seahawks. That mojo isn’t nearly as bad as the Rams’ offensive line though. Red Bryant and Chris Clemons are going to have a field day teeing off on Sam Bradford. The Seahawks have on the best defenses in the league, so don’t expect the Rams running or passing game to do much. Marshawn Lynch will batter and bruise the feeble Rams rush defense, and lead the Seahawks to an easy victory.

 

Prop Bet Parlay of the Week (Odds in parentheses)

1) Most Passing Yards in the 1pm Games – Matt Ryan (9:2) – The panthers struggle to get any kind of pass rush, and don’t have quality players in their secondary to handle Julio Jones and Roddy White. Matt Ryan will have all kinds of time to throw and rack up yardage against the putrid Panthers.

2) Most Rushing Yards in the 1pm Games – Marshawn Lynch (7:2) – As I said before, the Rams struggle to stop the Run. It’s going to be Beast Mode all day.

3) Will Tim Tebow catch a pass in Week 4? – YES (+170) – With Stephen Hill and Dustin Keller potentially out, the Jets are going to have to get creative to make a dent against this 49ers defense. Sanchez tried to throw a pass to Tebow last week, but doinked it off of his helmet. I feel like they try this again and connect for a few yards.

 

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